Maybe I’m being totally paranoid, but I’m worried about an October surprise, specifically, the stock market crashing and the economy collapsing again.
For one thing, we haven’t had a recession the entire Obama administration. This has been the longest period of sustained growth in my entire life. But the flip side is that anyone who isn’t a 1%er doesn’t really have much to show for it. For another thing, the Obama administration (in concert with a completely useless Congress) really didn’t do very much to make sure something like the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 can never happen again. Someone I know who works with Wall Street firms tells me that everything that happened in the late ’00s is basically still happening, and it’s only a matter of time before everything comes crashing down again.
And in the event of a financial meltdown, what’s Clinton going to say after she took all that money from all those banks? Trump—who, despite being a 1%er—will totally run on the “I’m not like these other guys, I have a better plan” platform and everyone who is financially ruined by another crash will completely believe him even if he leads us all into the abyss.
This is one of the main reasons why I think Sanders is actually the safe bet.1
Right now, with positive grown, low unemployment, and low inflation, the point is moot. But if we end up in the throes of another Great Recession (1) a lot of incumbents are going to lose their seats in Congress this November, almost certainly shifting the balance of power again and (2) anyone opposing the new President trying to fix the economy will lose their seat in 2018.
Sure, it’s a lot of ifs, but people make crazy decisions when their IRAs and 401ks lose half their value, and that crazy decision might be President Trump if there isn’t another anti-Wall Street alternative.2